Desi Tamasha

From the New Yorker magazine review of "Expert Political Judgment", a book that basically says that experts are pretty much useless when it comes to making predictions:

In one study, college counsellors were given information about a group of high-school students and asked to predict their freshman grades in college. The counsellors had access to test scores, grades, the results of personality and vocational tests, and personal statements from the students, whom they were also permitted to interview. Predictions that were produced by a formula using just test scores and grades were more accurate.

(via Marc Andreessen)

I haven't read the book but Mr. Andreessen says it's a must-read. The above paragraph caught my attention. US universities supposedly pay a lot of attention to personal essays etc. in admissions, but isn't an Indian style rigorous testing system a better tool after all?
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