Monday, March 10, 2003

Tosses win matches?


I tried to look for correlation between tosses and match outcomes. I took the results of the last 10 or so matches that did not get rained out or end in a tie. The result: 50-50. There's a 50% chance that you would win if you won the toss and 50% chance that you would win if you batted first. There's a slightly better chance of winning if you won the toss and elected to bat first. All in all, it does seem like the better sides (sides with good batting and good pace/seam attack) are winning in this World Cup. There are just two problems: 1. The boycotts, 2. No real purchase for spinners on the S. African pitches.


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